OpenAI misses revenue, is the AI bubble bursting?

57 points
1/21/1970
a day ago
by oomuinio

Comments


whinvik

Is this article really worth sharing? A speculative headline with no numbers, no estimates, 0 data.

Feels like click bait and HN is submitting to the bait.

a day ago

i_love_retros

The billions being thrown at openai and anthropic are speculative

a day ago

brazukadev

You don't need numbers when the person responsible for the numbers says they are bad.

a day ago

therobots927

Oh you want numbers?

Here’s a number: 3.5

That’s the number of years until we achieve AGI according to Sam Altman: https://techresearchonline.com/news/sam-altman-predicts-agi-...

This company’s current valuation is entirely speculative. So if you’re going to criticize the article, maybe direct some of that skepticism towards the company in question.

a day ago

naveen99

Isn’t it general knowledge AGI has been achieved ?

19 hours ago

tedd4u

This CNBC article is based on a Wall Street Journal article.

https://archive.ph/mTiIs

OpenAI Misses Key Revenue, User Targets in High-Stakes Sprint Toward IPO By Berber Jin

The company’s CFO and board have questioned the wisdom of massive data-center spending in the face of slowing growth

a day ago

unrelat3d

Ah that explains handing models over to AWS to run in their data centers

a day ago

tedd4u

Yeah I bet you’re right. Data centers are not a hobby.

21 hours ago

9fwfj9r

OpenAI had worse models (GPT 5.2 and 5.4) at that time. But now the tables have turned. Would Anthropic face a similar situation since Opus 4.7 falls below expectations?

a day ago

cyber_kinetist

Claude and Claude Code are still quite useful even when considering the recent degradations, so I don't think corporate users will leave easily especially considering that they're subsidized by their companies. I think the most likely scenario is that Anthropic will remove the Max ($100 / $200) subscriptions (which were the sweet spot for most users) and opt for token-based prices instead, which will make the average cost 2x ~ 3x higher which will keep them afloat in terms of ROI. Performance will plateau though since model research cannot sustain itself any longer, and then it's only a matter of how fast the open-source Chinese models will catch up in efficiency.

a day ago

dexterlagan

Anthropic has since found and fixed the perf. problem: https://www.anthropic.com/engineering/april-23-postmortem

18 hours ago

threepts

Increasing cost will only make people embrace competitor or open source models.

a day ago

danaw

a 2-3x pricing increase will also lose them customers and still they're likely to be bleeding cash like a stuck pig

a day ago

nikolay

Journos love bashing AI, knowing they will be replaced by it within months to a couple of years.

a day ago

i_love_retros

OK sam

a day ago

jaredcwhite

"rapidly evolving industry"

That has always been wildly unprofitable…

a day ago

ChildOfChaos

As were a lot of big companies, like Amazon, until they weren’t.

a day ago

illist-ell1s

These companies will not be able to keep making large improvements to their models as time goes on. You gotta remember to not be holding the bag when the music stops.

a day ago

firebot

Gustafson would hard disagree with you, while Amdahl shares your pessimism.

I think Gustafson has better receipts... His main argument is that software will update to take advantage of new parallelism in hardware. And that's definitely been the case.

AI has ridiculous levels exploitable parallelism. It'll scale up and out.

20 hours ago

nullsmack

The Dot Com bubble burst and it didn't materially affect anything. Some of the things that failed then even came back later. Buying stuff online ate retail, sadly enough. Some dumb business plans went away, but the core of the commercial web never did. There's an idea, mostly from the anti-AI folks, that AI will magically "go away" once the bubble finally bursts and I hate to burst any more bubbles here but AI isn't going back in the bottle. For better or worse.

a day ago

ChildOfChaos

Yeah exactly. It’s pretty certain that the AI bubble will burst. A few companies will have a hard time and disappear. For everyone else though, this will just be headlines in the news and AI will continue as it was.

a day ago

mock-possum

God I hope so

a day ago

guluarte

I guess free tokens are over and most providers will move to token based billing soon.

a day ago

ChrisArchitect

Related:

OpenAI Misses Key Revenue, User Targets in High-Stakes Sprint Toward IPO

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47929510

a day ago

ivandenysov

This comment is a mandatory mention of Betteridge's law of headlines.

a day ago

brazukadev

or so Sam Altman hopes

a day ago

therobots927

So quiet on HN you can hear crickets…

Chirp chirp

a day ago

brazukadev

the more people talk the bigger te chance of it bursting so lots of people will just stay mute hoping it is not the time yet.

a day ago

ugyyy

The tide turned the past 2 months. Hype is fading away. This place was really unbearable back then, it’s not so bad now.

a day ago

therobots927

Silence is its own kind of loud.

a day ago

bit1993

Anyone else think OpenAI and Anthropic should really be one company?

a day ago

danaw

crazy idea but how about we force them to become a public entity since their entire product is built on our stolen IP?

a day ago

derwiki

No? Generally, competition is considered good

a day ago

brazukadev

Why? I don't mind both of them going out of business.

a day ago

[deleted]
a day ago

jakeydus

Two birds with one stone thing maybe?

a day ago